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S&P 500 Price to Earnings Ratio
InterpretationThe price earnings ratio is calculated by dividing a company's stock price by it's earnings per share. In other words, the price earnings ratio shows what the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its current earnings. The PE ratio of the S&P 500 divides the index (current market price) by the reported earnings of the trailing twelve months. In 2009 when earnings fell close to zero the ratio got out of whack. A solution to this phenomenon is to divide the price by the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. In recent years, Yale professor Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has reintroduced this adjusted ratio to a wider audience of investors. The Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is illustrated below. Data SourcesQuandl.com S&P 500 PE Ratio by Month
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Price Earnings Ratio: The Complete Guide
The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is a famous and commonly used valuation indicator. Investors use the P/E ratio to support their investment decisions and to evaluate if a stock is overpriced or undervalued. It is mentioned frequently on financial articles and economic journalism to check and show the pricing of a company, relative to its current earnings. The P/E ratio can be applied for both a single stock or to an entire stock market index. its simplicity makes it extremely popular for novice investors and professionals. What is P/E Ratio and How to Calculate it?The PE ratio basically tells you how much investors are currently willing to pay for a company share, relative to its earnings. In other words, it shows how many years it would take for the company’s earnings to match the current price of its shares. The calculation method is quite straightforward: This indicator also goes by the name the earnings multiplier. Because it is how much an investor agrees to pay for each dollar that the business is making. There are two main types of pe ratios: The first one is the trailing 12-months pe ratio, which is calculated as the current stock price divided by the company’s last 12-month earnings per share (EPS). The second type is the forward 12-months pe ratio (also known as the projected pe ratio), which is calculated as the current stock price divided by the company’s next 12 months earnings per share, as estimated by analysts. What is Considered a Good PE Ratio?The historical average ratio of a large-cap stock index (examples: S&P 500, DJIA 30 and EURO STOXX 50) is around 15. Stocks with medium pe ratio (10 to 20) are usually of mature and well-established companies. Which, in most cases, have a regular dividend distribution and a modest growth rate. Stocks with high pe ratio (above 25) are of companies with fast growth rates. Most of which, invest a lot in research and development (R&D) and do not pay dividends to shareholders. High pe ratio will mostly mean that investors see the company as one with good expansion potential, and believe that it will increase its earnings rapidly in the future. On the other hand, extremely low pe ratio (below 10) usually means that investors believe that the company is in distress and probably won’t be able to continue with the current earnings rate. Stock Market Index PE RatioStock market indices also have pe ratios, it is simply the weighted mean of the pe ratios of all the index components. Investors use this to evaluate whether the market is overpriced or undervalued. American stock indices have a historical average pe ratio of around 16. European stock indices have historical average pe ratio of around 13. Mostly because of structural difficulties for business on the continent: Strong labor unions, high regulations and more. Emerging markets stock indices have historical average pe ratio of around 12. Developing economies face many problems: Political corruption, high dependence on commodity prices (which tend to fluctuate) and more. For those reasons, investors aren’t willing to pay “full price” for EM stocks. Zutos Money has prepared an entire page with an interactive chart of the historical pe ratio of the S&P 500 stock marketindex since 1871. PE Ratio of Different SectorsIt is advisable to compare a stock pe ratio to the average of its sector, in order to understand the true valuation of the company. Different sectors characterized by different ratio, and we wish to compare apples to apples. Technology sector stocks will usually have a higher pe ratio (more than 20, on average). Investors will usually “pay” more for High-Tech companies because they expect greater grows rate in the future. This is why investors consider High-Tech stocks risky. Traditional industries shares tend to have lower pe ratio (less than 15, on average). The financial sector average pe ratio is around 12-13. Advantages of the Multiplier. Why People Love it.This ratio is a prominent metric for valuing stock. Its main advantage is accessibility – there is much information about individual stocks pe ratio and stock market indices pe ratio. The pe ratio is easy to calculate. All you need is the share price and the past 12-month earnings (or the projected Next 12-month earnings, for forward pe ratio). No need for an army of analysts. The second main reason why it’s so successful is that it’s convenient for comparison. It is customary to compare pe ratios of: Stocks from the same industry.Historical values of a stock market index, and not of different stock market indices. Disadvantages of the PE Ratio Indicator. Why some Hate it.The regular pe ratio takes into account only the past 12-month earnings of a company and ignores the previous years’ outcome. One-time events can affect greatly on a business’s earnings statement. Events such as asset book-value reduction, big fine by regulators and more. All of those have a great and real effect on the financial results, but probably won’t hurt long-term revenues, and thus defect the quality of the current pe ratio. In May 2009 the S&P 500 pe ratio was incredibly high – over 120! because earnings were at the bottom. This number was clearly misleading, the traded shares were “cheap” at that time (with the assumption that the world is not going to end). Sometimes during economic cycle earnings don’t represent the true value of the businesses. In those cases the pe ratio is irrelevant, this is another shortcoming of the indicator. Many businesses in their early stages invest a great deal of money in research and development (R&D), which leads to high Expenses, and earnings tend to be low. Those companies goal is to develop a new product or take over a large market share and attract new customers. This stage in the company’s life can last for many years, in which it sacrifices current income for future results. The pe ratio of the stock will be very high (in some cases, even over 300); investors need to take all of this into their consideration when valuing the stock. How to Check the Credibility of a Stock PE RatioThe pe ratio has some inherent disadvantages, as we showed in the previous paragraph. In some cases, the price earnings ratio of a stock doesn’t represent the true value of the company. We need to take a glance at the income statement of the business and check if earnings are consistent. We want to make sure that the previous year earnings aren’t unusual and based on one-time events. Take the following earnings statement for example: The revenue of this company grows consistently every year, and so does expense. Stock price moves up and the market value of the corporation is rising. The range of the pe ratios is 16-17. In 2016, the financial reports took a massive hit- Other expenses increased substantially above normal expenses. This could happen because of a one-time event that probably won’t repeat in the future. In such a case, It is important to read the footnotes to the financial statements and understand what caused the increase in expenses. So the pe ratio at the end of 2016 didn’t show the real value of the stock. You shouldn’t take it into consideration for your investment resolutions. For free financial reports of companies visit yahoo financeor Morningstarand type the stock symbol or name, then visit the financials section. More Stock Market Valuations IndicatorsPE ratio is not the only indicator out there. There are many more measurements that can help the investor to estimate if the stock market is “expensive” or “cheap”. To get the whole picture, it is advisable to look at all of the next indicators and use your best judgment. Total stock market capitalization to GDP (also known as the Buffett indicator). This is Warren Buffett’s favorite, he said it is the single most accurate way to measure the stock market. It is calculated as the total value of all traded stocks on the American stock exchanges divided by the U.S. gross domestic product. There is one drawback: revenues of traded American stocks today come more from outside of the U.S than in preceding decades – comparison is problematic. Still, the Total stock market capitalization to GDP provides a very broad picture. Shiller pe ratioShiller pe is a more “sophisticated” form of the regular pe ratio because It accounts for the previous 10-years earnings instead of just the past 12-months earnings. The Nobel-Prize winner, Robert James Shiller, invented the ratio. It is calculated as the share current price divided by the last 10-years average earning per share (EPS ), Inflation adjusted. The calculation for a stock market index is the index price divided by the previous ten years’ average earnings of all the index components, inflation adjusted. To watch the S&P 500 historical chart of the S&P 500 Shiller pe ratio click here. Dividend YieldThe dividend yield of a stock market index is another way to evaluate the pricing of the market. Stock price tends to fluctuate more than the dividend distribution. Stocks maybe overpriced when the dividend yield of an index is below the average. A dividend yield that is much above historical average signals that stocks may be underpriced. To watch the S&P 500 historical chart of the S&P 500 dividend yield click here. RSIThe relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator which comes from the technical analysis world. It measures the intensity of price change of an asset and is intended to conclude if an assent is overbought or oversold, during the measured period. It is calculated in the following way: RSI values are between 0 to 100. The most common number of periods used is 14. Short-term traders will use RSI 14 minutes/hours/days. Long-term investors will use RSI 14 days/weeks/months. RSI over 90 means that the assent is significantly overbought.RSI over 70 means that the assent is overbought.RSI under 30 means that the assent is oversold.RSI under 10 means that the assent is significantly oversold.The RSI strategies assume that after the values reach overbought or oversold territories, a correction will follow. The RSI is very popular among stock traders. There are many strategies for short-term trading based on RSI values. For long-term investors, the RSI cannot stand alone in their decision making. You must blend it with other factors for a wiser view. Earnings yield to U.S. 10-year government bond yield.This metric compares the stocks earning yield (forward 12-months earnings, projected by analysts) to the yield of the government bond 10-years maturity. It is also called the FED MODEL. Economist Ed Yardeni invented this indicator.
S&P 500 PE Ratio
The S&P 500 PE Ratio is the price to earnings ratio of the constituents of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 includes the 500 largest companies in the United States and can be viewed as a guage for how the United States stock market is performing. The price to earnings ratio is a valuation metric that gives a general idea of how a company's stock is priced in comparison to their earnings per share. Historically, the S&P 500 PE Ratio peaked above 120 during the financial crisis in 2009 and was at its lowest in 1988. S&P 500 PE Ratio is at a current level of 18.94, down from 22.35 last quarter and down from 24.33 one year ago. This is a change of -15.27% from last quarter and -22.18% from one year ago.
Price Earnings Ratio
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